As of the afternoon of August 27th, the local time of the United States, a total of 358 delegates attended the 6-day live hearing. The US Trade Representative Office 301 Investigation Committee will continue to receive written statements from US businesses and citizens on the official website until September 6. After that, the US government will comprehensively consider the corporate speech and written application of the hearing and issue the final tax collection list. It is reported that Trump is preparing to start taxing $2 billion in Chinese goods as early as this week. However, the formal analysis of tariffs for rational analysis is expected to begin at the end of September.

Although in the six-day, 358-member agenda of the on-site hearing, as many as 95% of the company’s representatives “put out and let go” and oppose the increase in taxes, the previous two rounds of hearings were also under such circumstances and still implemented. Increase taxes.

According to the American media: "You can''''t wake up a sleeper." Looking at the recent news reports, this round of tax increases seems inevitable.

It is reported that Trump hopes to immediately impose a tax on 2 billion goods.

And threatened to tax another 200 billion goods

Bloomberg News: The news said that Trump will levy tariffs on 200 billion US dollars of Chinese goods as early as next week (that is, this week)

Business Insider: The latest report shows that Trump will tax another 200 billion Chinese goods

Domestic and foreign media reports are not optimistic! The USTR''''s public comment period will remain open to the public until September 6. According to the previous process, this round of tax increase will be implemented as soon as the end of September or early October. At present, the Chinese companies that are in the middle of the product are urgently shipping, and the US line is exploding, and the price increase does not stop. View article: Recently exported to the United States to pay attention! Abandonment, return shipping, US line freight surge, explosion, smashing cabinet!

It is difficult for export enterprises to "be independent"

If the impact of the previous two rounds of the $50 billion tax increase list on Chinese exporters is not so obvious, then this list of 200 billion US dollars worth of goods involves 6031 products, which accounted for China’s total exports to the United States in 2017. 38%-46%.

The list covers not only the high-end manufacturing industries such as electrical machinery and machinery, but also many low-end manufacturing products (such as cotton, cardboard, wood, etc.) and consumer goods (such as food, textiles, furniture). Or it will force a large number of Chinese export companies to abandon the US market.

In the $200 billion list of Chinese goods, the proportion of consumer goods reached 23% for the first time, but it still dominated by intermediate products, accounting for about half (47%).

The top ten consumer products to be affected are: telephone ($24 billion), computer ($8 billion), furniture ($11 billion), chairs ($10 billion), lamps ($7 billion), travel bags (70) US$100 million) and agriculture and food ($6 billion). Affected household items include vacuum cleaners ($1.8 billion), cooking utensils ($3.8 billion), and refrigerators ($1 billion). (The amount in parentheses is 2017 trade statistics)

The top ten intermediate products and capital goods to be affected are: computer parts ($15 billion), auto parts ($9 billion), steel products ($8 billion), plastics ($6 billion), power transformers, Static converters and inductors ($5 billion) and aluminum ($794 million).

Among the five industries with the most serious export losses in China, the two industries of electrical equipment and machinery and equipment are in the top two, and the sum of export losses accounts for about 35% of total export losses. Industries such as furniture bedding, vehicles and their accessories, and plastic products are not affected by this list.

From the perspective of export value, among the 200 billion US dollars of goods, the highest value of motor, electrical, audio-visual equipment and accessories, reached 48.8 billion US dollars, accounting for 1/4 of the tariff list. The export value of nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and parts reached US$38.37 billion. The export value of vehicles and their accessories reached US$11.64 billion. The above three categories of goods also occupy the top four positions in the list of 50 billion US dollars of goods announced on June 15, which once again confirmed that the United States imposed tariffs on China mainly for the "Made in China 2025" related industries.

Electromechanical

According to the statistics of the Chamber of Commerce of Electrical and Mechanical Industry, in all three lists of tax-added goods worth US$250 billion, the tariff number of mechanical and electrical products accounted for 27.5% of the total tariff number, but the import value of US$169.9 billion accounted for 68% of the US$250 billion. The United States imported 66% of its total mechanical and electrical products from China, becoming the most affected industry. In 2017, the United States imported 256.63 billion US dollars of mechanical and electrical products from China, accounting for 50.8% of the total US imports of goods from China.

Mobile phones (Apple) and laptops (Microsoft+Intel), which are dominated by US-owned companies in the global value chain, are still not included in the tax collection list. In 2017, the US imports of these two products from China were worth $44.5 billion and $37.1 billion respectively. .

led

In the 200 billion tax increase list, there are more than ten items related to LED lighting. These products account for 75% of China''''s total exports of lighting products. In 2017, China''''s exports to the United States, the main lighting products, reached more than US$5 billion.

Currently, more than 85% of LED lighting products are manufactured and assembled in China. Although many LED lighting companies have production facilities outside China, their output is not enough to meet the needs of the US market. Therefore, the additional cost of this tariff may be reflected in the form of higher fees for US consumers.

In the long run, LED manufacturers with capacity in Taiwan or Southeast Asia may benefit because they can transfer orders to where to avoid tariffs. For those non-Chinese LED manufacturers, as Chinese companies sell lighting products to the US will gradually reduce and shift the rest of the products to other non-US markets, they may continue to face low-price competition, while lower prices will be for LEDs. The price of lighting products has a serious impact.

Clothing textile

According to the statistics of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Textiles, the proposed tax collection list of the United States covers 6031 tax numbers, of which more than 1,000 textile and apparel products have a tax number, covering most textile raw materials, semi-finished products and a small number of clothing accessories, mainly including textiles. Raw materials (cotton, silk, wool, hemp, etc.); yarns and fabrics (cotton, wool, silk, hemp, chemical fiber, fiberglass, etc.); carpets; industrial textiles; leather and fur garments, hats and gloves, plastics Raincoats, etc. Commodities such as woven garments, knitwear and home textiles that have a large export volume to China are not included in the list.